Wednesday, 22nd of October, 2025
By Devin Savage
Published by Karlier LLC | ISBN 979-8-9918828-1-1
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Book Overview
The DNA of Disaster: Catastrophe by Design presents a groundbreaking framework for understanding why catastrophic failures occur in complex human-designed systems. Drawing from extensive case studies spanning over a century of disasters—from the Titanic to the OceanGate Titan submersible—author Devin Savage reveals that most catastrophes share a predictable pattern of human follies, flawed assumptions, and ignored warnings.
The book argues that disasters are rarely “accidents” in the traditional sense. Instead, they are the inevitable outcomes of systems designed with fundamental flaws, operated within environments where economic pressures, hubris, and institutional inertia override safety concerns. Savage introduces the concept of “Catastrophe by Design”—the idea that the seeds of disaster are embedded in the very DNA of how we create, regulate, and operate complex systems.
Core Thesis and Framework
At the heart of Savage’s analysis is the concept of ‘Cultural Monuments’ and how these entities engender cultural bias and therefore contribute to disasters.
Cultural Monuments: The Architecture of Collective Identity
In this work, Devin Savage introduces the concept of Cultural Monuments—powerful entities that shape how societies think, decide, and survive. These monuments can be anything from physical structures like Uluru or the Concorde, to abstract concepts like laws, rituals, or founding documents. They serve as repositories of “Cultural DNA,” transmitting values and knowledge across generations while often acquiring sacred status that makes them remarkably resistant to change.
Savage argues that Cultural Monuments operate intuitively within cultures, requiring little conscious thought yet profoundly influencing decision-making and group identity. While they preserve essential cultural wisdom, they can also introduce dangerous blind spots. Through examples ranging from the Titanic to the Space Shuttle program, Savage demonstrates how these entities—whether naturally occurring or deliberately constructed—can both protect and imperil societies via cultural projection.
Most critically, Savage reveals how leaders can manipulate Cultural Monuments through “Blue-Sky” or “Dark-Sky” monument building to serve particular agendas. He contends that understanding these cultural forces is essential for preventing disasters, as their power and pervasiveness can blind entire societies to real risks and systemic flaws. Cultural Monuments, Savage concludes, are the key to unlocking how societies preserve their past—and sometimes endanger their future.
The DNA of Disaster Framework
Devin Savage presents a diagnostic framework that can be applied to any complex system to assess its vulnerability to catastrophic failure. The framework examines:
Catastrophic Potential – Every designed system has an inherent capacity for disaster based on its complexity, operating environment, and consequences of failure
Flawed Assumptions – Designed systems rest on assumptions about operating conditions, human behaviour, and risk factors that may not hold true in reality
The Factory Floor Environment – The actual operational context where regulatory pressures, economic incentives, and institutional culture shape decision-making
Chains of Authenticity – How systems gain perceived legitimacy through associations with prestigious institutions, technologies, or authorities—often misleadingly
Warning Signs and Cassandras – The presence and fate of individuals who identify problems and attempt to prevent disaster
The Four Basic Human Follies
From “The DNA of Disaster: Catastrophe by Design” by Devin Savage
Introduction to the Follies Framework
The Four Basic Human Follies describe the relationship between intelligent design (products of human minds and planning and now AI) and evolutionary design (forces that arose with the beginning of the universe). These follies represent common patterns of flawed assumptions and misunderstandings that consistently contribute to catastrophic failures in human-designed systems.
Key principle: “Catastrophes can have as many maladies as they please” – meaning multiple follies often interact synergistically within a single disaster, rather than occurring in isolation.
The Four Follies and Their Nicknames
Human Folly #1: Assuming the presence of intelligent design when only semi-intelligent design or no intelligent design is present. (The Divine Intervention Folly)
Human Folly #2: Assuming the absence of intelligent design where it is present. (The Propaganda Folly)
Human Folly #3: Misunderstanding the true nature of an intelligent design. (The Trojan Horse Folly)
Human Folly #4: Misunderstanding of the true nature of the universe, randomness, and evolutionary forces. (The Marie and Pierre Curie Folly)
Note: The folly always applies to the participant who holds the misunderstanding or faulty assumption.
Human Folly #1: The Divine Intervention Folly
Assuming the presence of intelligent design when only semi-intelligent design or no intelligent design is present
Core Concept
This folly represents the human mind’s propensity to assign intelligence, will, or agency to phenomena where none actually exists. It is embedded in our language through expressions like “It was meant to be” or “It wanted to rain today” – as if natural events were caused by entities with goals and intentions.
Two Primary Manifestations
Attributing Agency to Natural Forces: Believing that supernatural entities or divine will cause natural phenomena that are actually driven by physical forces traceable to the universe’s origins.
Overestimating the Intelligence of a Design: Treating “semi-intelligent design” (designs poorly adapted to their environment) as if they were fully intelligent or completely understood, reliable systems.
Examples from the Book
Mount Vesuvius (79 AD): Witnesses to the eruption assumed supernatural forces were responsible – that gods with agency had caused the eruption. Modern science reveals the eruption was caused by geologic forces traceable to the universe’s origins, not divine intervention.
The Hypothetical Ancient Farmer: Savage presents a hypothetical scenario of a farmer living 2,000 years ago whose fields are threatened by a swollen, raging river. The farmer believes the gods are angry and that he must sacrifice his youngest daughter to the river to appease them. This belief system assumes intelligent design (divine agency) where only natural forces exist. The farmer remembers that “this spell and sacrifice worked many years ago” – but correlation is not causation. This scene, in various iterations, has repeated throughout human history and formed the basis of religions.
Outdated Law: A law still theoretically in effect in modern Germany states that horses must be tied outside a Biergarten rather than allowed inside. This is semi-intelligent design – it was once rational but is now obsolete and maladapted to its environment. While largely harmless, Savage asks: “Could there be cases where outdated laws or regulations actually cause problems or even lead to disasters?”
The Titanic’s “Unsinkable” Narrative: The public and passengers assumed the presence of fully intelligent design in the ship’s bulkhead system. While there was some intelligent design present, it was actually semi-intelligent design – the bulkheads didn’t extend high enough and the watertight compartments could still flood sequentially. People treated the system as more intelligent and reliable than it actually was.
Tesla Autopilot Assumptions: The book discusses how drivers assume Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” mode represents truly intelligent design capable of handling all situations. This is folly – the system cannot account for all environmental variables in real-time and requires human oversight. Numerous crashes have resulted from this misplaced assumption.
Connection to Other Follies
Human Folly #1 often appears alongside Folly #4 (misunderstanding nature). The ancient farmer displayed both: assuming divine agency (Folly #1) while not understanding the meteorological causes of heavy rainfall and flooding (Folly #4).
Human Folly #2: The Propaganda Folly
Assuming the absence of intelligent design where it is present
Core Concept
This folly results from withholding information or misrepresenting events as they actually occurred. It is best understood as constituting a type of fraud or manipulation. The victim assumes something is naturally occurring or accidental when it is actually the result of deliberate human action or design.
This can also be thought of as the “revisionist folly” where history has been deliberately manipulated. While past events cannot be changed, understanding of them can be manipulated to alter the perceived meaning of what occurred.
Examples from the Book
Intentional Poisoning: The victim or bystanders interpret symptoms as a naturally occurring illness when the cause is actually deliberate human action.
Factitious Disorder Imposed on Another (Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy): A caregiver deliberately causes illness in someone under their care while presenting it as a natural medical condition.
Gaslighting: The perpetrator conspires to manipulate the victim’s perception of self, environment, and relationships, making the victim question their own reality.
Engineered Pathogens: If an engineered pathogen is introduced into a population (deliberately or accidentally), victims may assume it is naturally occurring. The intelligent design lies in both the engineering of the pathogen and potentially in the method of introduction.
Landmine in a Nature Preserve: A person walking through what appears to be an untouched natural area encounters a buried landmine – human intelligent design disguised as natural environment.
The Second Amendment Debate: Savage argues that the Second Amendment’s language about “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State” has been deliberately reinterpreted. Thomas Jefferson and others believed standing armies increased chances of war and that armed citizen militias were sufficient for homeland defense. Over two centuries, this statement about militias has been “deliberately turned into a constitutional right to own personal firearms, while the industry supplying those firearms has prospered” – a case where the original intelligent design has been obscured by revisionist interpretation.
Historical Monument Manipulation: The book discusses how physical monuments and memorials can be erected, removed, or recontextualized to serve current political agendas, creating false narratives about the past.
Connection to Other Follies
Human Folly #2 is often paired with Folly #3. When intelligent design is hidden (Folly #2), victims not only fail to recognize its presence but also misunderstand its true nature and purpose (Folly #3). The landmine example demonstrates this: the victim first assumes no intelligent design exists in the natural landscape (Folly #2), then misunderstands the nature of the terrain (Folly #3).
Human Folly #3: The Trojan Horse Folly
Misunderstanding the true nature of an intelligent design
Core Concept
This folly occurs when people recognize that intelligent design is present but fundamentally misunderstand what that design actually is, how it works, or what its true purpose may be. The design might be benign, neutral, or malicious – but the observer’s understanding doesn’t match reality.
Named after the Trojan Horse from Greek mythology, this folly encompasses situations where something appears to be one thing but is actually something quite different. The victims understand “a thing” exists but are wrong about what that thing actually is.
Key Characteristics
Unlike Folly #2 (where design is hidden), in Folly #3 the presence of design is obvious – but its true nature is obscured or misunderstood.
This folly can occur through deliberate deception, innocent misunderstanding, or inadequate information.
The misunderstanding can relate to: function, purpose, safety, effectiveness, or underlying mechanisms.
Examples from the Book
The Original Trojan Horse: The Greeks present a giant wooden horse as a gift to Troy. The Trojans recognise it as an intelligently designed artifact but misunderstand its true nature and purpose – it contains hidden Greek soldiers who will attack from within.
Theranos Blood Testing: Investors, partners, and patients recognized that Theranos had created blood testing technology, but they fundamentally misunderstood what that technology could actually do. The design existed but couldn’t perform as claimed.
Stockton Rush’s Titan Submersible: Passengers and some crew recognized that the Titan was an intelligently designed submersible, but they misunderstood crucial aspects of its design – particularly the use of carbon fiber in a deep-ocean application, the inadequacy of its viewport certification, and the absence of proper safety systems. The intelligent design was present but was fundamentally different from what passengers believed they were boarding.
The Concorde’s Economic Model: Airlines and governments recognized the Concorde as an intelligently designed supersonic aircraft, but they misunderstood the economic realities of operating it profitably. The technical design was impressive, but the business model design was flawed.
Academic Credential Fraud: An institution or individual presents credentials suggesting expertise in a particular field. Others recognize the credentials as markers of intelligent education and training but don’t realize they are fraudulent or irrelevant to the claimed expertise.
Real-World Disaster Applications
The OceanGate Titan: Multiple manifestations of Folly #3
Passengers misunderstood the safety implications of the novel carbon fiber hull design
The experimental nature was obscured by associations with prestigious institutions
The viewport’s inadequacy for the operating depth
The absence of certification wasn’t understood as the critical safety concern it represented
The Titanic: Passengers and crew understood the ship had a sophisticated bulkhead system but misunderstood its limitations – the bulkheads didn’t extend high enough to prevent sequential flooding.
Connection to Other Follies
Folly #3 often combines with Folly #1: People may recognize that intelligent design exists (avoiding Folly #2) but overestimate how intelligent or capable that design actually is (Folly #1), while also misunderstanding its fundamental nature (Folly #3).
The Theranos example demonstrates this combination: investors didn’t just assume the technology was more capable than it was (Folly #1) – they fundamentally misunderstood what the technology actually was and how it functioned (Folly #3).
Human Folly #4: The Marie and Pierre Curie Folly
Misunderstanding of the true nature of the universe, randomness, and evolutionary forces
Core Concept
This folly represents humanity’s ongoing struggle to understand natural laws, physical forces, and the fundamental nature of reality. Unlike the first three follies (which concern intelligent design), Folly #4 addresses our misunderstanding of evolutionary design – the forces and patterns that arose with the universe itself and operate independently of human intention.
Named after Marie and Pierre Curie, who suffered radiation exposure because the dangers of radioactivity were not yet understood, this folly encompasses all cases where humans fail to comprehend natural phenomena, physical laws, or evolutionary processes.
Key Characteristics
Concerns natural forces rather than human-created systems
Can involve:
Unknown dangers in nature
Misunderstanding of probability and randomness
Failure to grasp evolutionary pressures
Incomplete scientific knowledge
Misapplication of natural laws
Often discovered only after causing harm
Scientific understanding is always incomplete – what we don’t know can hurt us
Examples from the Book
Marie and Pierre Curie’s Radiation Exposure: The Curies worked extensively with radioactive materials without understanding the health dangers. They suffered radiation poisoning because the true nature of radioactivity and its biological effects weren’t yet understood. Their misunderstanding of universal forces (radiation) led directly to their health problems and eventual deaths.
The Hypothetical Ancient Farmer (Revisited): Beyond assuming divine intervention (Folly #1), the farmer displays Folly #4 by not understanding the meteorological and hydrological causes of the flooding. He doesn’t understand the natural forces at work – weather patterns, water cycles, and geological factors.
Early Aviation and Turbulence: Early aviators didn’t fully understand atmospheric physics, wind shear, microbursts, and other aerodynamic phenomena. This incomplete understanding of natural forces led to crashes that wouldn’t have occurred with better knowledge of atmospheric science.
The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Many victims didn’t recognize the warning signs (the ocean receding dramatically) because they didn’t understand the natural physics of tsunami formation. Their misunderstanding of evolutionary forces (seismic activity, wave physics) contributed to the death toll.
Deep-Sea Pressure Physics: Early deep-sea exploration attempts failed because engineers didn’t fully understand how materials behave under extreme pressure at great ocean depths. The true nature of these physical forces had to be learned through experimentation and sometimes tragedy.
Asbestos Use: For decades, asbestos was widely used in construction and manufacturing because its cancer-causing properties weren’t understood. The material’s interaction with human biology – a natural force – wasn’t comprehended until after extensive exposure.
Application to the OceanGate Titan
The Titan disaster involved Folly #4 in multiple ways:
Incomplete understanding of how carbon fiber composites behave under repeated extreme pressure cycles
Misunderstanding the physics of deep-ocean pressure on hull materials
Connection to Other Follies
Folly #4 frequently combines with the other follies:
With Folly #1: The ancient farmer both assumed divine agency (Folly #1) AND didn’t understand natural weather patterns (Folly #4)
With Folly #3: Engineers might recognize they’re dealing with natural forces but misunderstand how those forces actually work
With Folly #2: Natural phenomena might be deliberately obscured or misrepresented (like downplaying radiation dangers once they become known)
The Evolutionary Design Spectrum
Savage emphasizes that Folly #4 exists on a spectrum:
At one end: Complete ignorance of natural forces (like the Curies with radiation)
In the middle: Partial understanding with critical gaps
At the other end: Sophisticated understanding but with subtle misapplications
Why This Folly Persists
Scientific knowledge is always incomplete and evolving
Natural forces are often invisible or operate on scales (very large, very small, very slow, very fast) that are difficult for humans to perceive
Probability and randomness are counterintuitive to human cognition
Evolutionary pressures operate over timescales that exceed human perception
New technologies often interact with natural forces in ways we haven’t yet characterized
Major Case Studies Examined
The book provides in-depth analysis of several major disasters, including:
The RMS Titanic (1912)
The archetypal disaster demonstrating overconfidence, ignored warnings, and the gap between perceived and actual safety. Savage examines how the “unsinkable” narrative, economic pressures to maintain schedule, inadequate lifeboat capacity, and ignored ice warnings combined to create catastrophe.
The Space Shuttle Challenger (1986)
A case study in how organisational culture, political pressures, and normalization of deviance led to disaster despite clear warnings from engineers about O-ring problems in cold weather.
The Space Shuttle Columbia (2003)
Demonstrates how lessons from previous disasters can be forgotten and how foam strikes – initially treated as acceptable risks – ultimately proved catastrophic.
The OceanGate Titan Submersible (2023)
The book’s most extensively analysed case, showing how a company bypassed normal safety protocols, dismissed expert concerns, used untested materials in extreme environments, and created misleading chains of authenticity through associations with prestigious institutions. The Titan disaster exemplifies nearly every principle in Savage’s framework.
The Boeing 737 MAX Crashes (2018-2019)
Illustrates how economic pressures, regulatory capture, and flawed assumptions about pilot training led to two catastrophic crashes and the grounding of an entire aircraft fleet.
Key Themes Across Cases
The Cassandra Complex
A recurring pattern across disasters: individuals who identify problems and raise concerns are dismissed, marginalized, or ignored. Named after the Greek mythological figure cursed to speak true prophecies that no one would believe, these “Cassandras” include:
David Lochridge (Titan submersible concerns)
Roger Boisjoly and Allan J. McDonald (Challenger O-rings)
Engineers and test pilots who raised concerns about the 737 MAX
Savage argues that organisational culture often punishes rather than rewards such warnings, creating environments where speaking up becomes career-limiting rather than career-enhancing.
The Bandwagon Effect and Monument Building
Many disasters occur during ambitious projects to create impressive “firsts” or cultural monuments:
The Titanic’s maiden voyage as the world’s largest ship
The Space Shuttle program as a reusable spacecraft and national symbol
The Concorde as the pinnacle of supersonic passenger flight
The Titan as democratizing deep-sea exploration
These monument-building efforts often lead to:
Cutting corners to meet deadlines
Overlooking safety concerns to preserve the narrative
Dismissing warnings that threaten the project’s prestige
Economic pressures that override prudent caution
Regulatory Capture and the Factory Floor
A recurring theme is how regulatory bodies become captured by the industries they regulate, creating environments where:
Economic pressures override safety concerns
Regulations lag behind technological developments
Close relationships between regulators and industry create conflicts of interest
Warnings and concerns are minimized to maintain operational continuity
The Role of Luck
The opening sections discuss how systems can operate with fundamental flaws for extended periods without catastrophic failure, not because they are safe, but because they are lucky. When luck runs out, the underlying vulnerabilities are suddenly and catastrophically revealed.
Aboriginal Origin Stories and Chains of Authenticity
Savage explores how societies create narratives of legitimacy and authority, drawing parallels between aboriginal origin stories that establish cultural authenticity and modern systems that use prestigious associations to establish credibility—often misleadingly.
Key Insights and Takeaways
Disasters are predictable – The same patterns repeat across different technologies, industries, and time periods
Listen to Cassandras – Organisations must create environments where people can raise concerns without fear of retaliation
Question the bandwagon – Popular consensus and market enthusiasm can override rational risk assessment
Beware monument building – The drive to create impressive “firsts” often leads to cutting corners on safety
Scrutinize expertise – Not all claimed experts have genuine qualifications; verify credentials and track records
Challenge assumptions – Designed systems rest on assumptions that may not hold under real-world conditions
Examine the “factory floor” – Understanding the actual operational environment and incentive structures is crucial
Verify chains of authenticity – Prestigious associations may be more tenuous than they appear
Don’t confuse luck with safety – Systems can operate successfully for years with fundamental flaws until circumstances align catastrophically
Regulatory capture is real – Independent oversight is essential but difficult to maintain
What Does Devin Savage Mean by “Noise” in Designed Systems?
First of all, ‘noise’ is information. It’s a sign that randomness has entered a designed system. In “The DNA of Disaster: Catastrophe by Design,” author Devin Savage uses the term “noise” to describe warning signals or anomalous behaviours that indicate a designed system is experiencing problems or vulnerabilities. When a designed system “throws off noise,” it produces unexpected outcomes, malfunctions, or irregularities that suggest underlying design flaws or environmental mismatches.
Key Characteristics of System “Noise” According to Savage:
Warning Signals of Design Flaws – Noise represents evidence that a system is not functioning as intended or is poorly adapted to its operating environment. These signals often appear as recurring problems, minor failures, or near-misses that precede catastrophic failure.
Examples from Major Disasters:
- Concorde: Repeated tyre burst incidents and spontaneous tyre shredding before the fatal 2000 crash
- Space Shuttle Challenger: O-ring blowby problems that occurred on multiple flights before the 1986 disaster
- Space Shuttle Columbia: Ongoing foam-shedding from the External Tank before the 2003 disaster
- Titanic: Ships’ inability to avoid icebergs and underwater obstacles in general maritime operations
Often Ignored or Uninvestigated – Savage emphasizes that designed systems can produce noise for years without proper investigation or corrective action. Organisations may normalize these anomalies or fail to recognize their significance until catastrophe occurs.
Feedback from the Environment – Noise represents environmental feedback indicating that a system cannot adequately account for or control its operating conditions. When ignored, this feedback prevents “cognitive control” (decision-makers) from understanding real risks.
Indicators of Semi-Intelligent Design – When systems produce noise, it often reveals they are “semi-intelligent designs” – creations that may have worked under initial conditions but are maladapted to actual operational environments or changing circumstances.
The Critical Lesson:
Savage argues that when designed systems produce noise, it is “prudent to find its origin” and address the underlying problem. Failure to investigate and correct noise-producing conditions allows chance and randomness (evolutionary forces) to enter the designed system, creating unpredictability and setting the stage for disaster.
The concept of noise is central to Savage’s framework for understanding how disasters occur: complex systems give off warning signals long before catastrophic failure, but organisational culture, economic pressures, and cognitive biases often prevent decision-makers from recognizing or acting on these signals.
Target Audience
This book can be regarded at its core as a work on social criticism, with an emphasis on the intersection of culture and technology.
This book is valuable for:
Risk managers and safety professionals seeking frameworks for identifying systemic vulnerabilities
Engineers and designers working on complex systems
Executives and decision-makers who need to understand how organisational culture affects outcomes
Regulators and policymakers responsible for oversight of complex systems
Investors and analysts evaluating technological ventures
General readers interested in human behaviour, technological history, and disaster analysis
Students and academics in fields such as engineering ethics, risk analysis, organisational behaviour, and technology studies
Writing Style and Structure
Savage combines rigorous analysis with accessible narrative storytelling. Each case study is presented with extensive historical detail, followed by application of the DNA of Disaster framework. The book includes:
Detailed timelines of disasters
Analysis of regulatory environments and institutional cultures
Profiles of key decision-makers and Cassandra figures
Examination of how technical, economic, and cultural factors interact
Extensive citations and references
About the Author
Devin Savage is a practicing dentist and cultural analyst who brings unique interdisciplinary perspectives to disaster analysis. His background in biological sciences, dental medicine, medical device design, and military service, combined with his experience practicing in both the United States and Germany, informs his understanding of how designed systems fail when human factors and cultural biases affect their operation. He currently resides in Tübingen, Germany.
Why This Book Matters Now
In an era of increasing technological complexity, from artificial intelligence to biotechnology to space exploration, understanding the patterns that lead to catastrophic failure has never been more important. The DNA of Disaster: Catastrophe by Design provides a framework for recognizing warning signs before disasters occur and for creating organisational cultures that prioritize safety over prestige, evidence over enthusiasm, and caution over careerism.
The tragic parallelism between the Titanic’s sinking in 1912 and the Titan submersible’s implosion in 2023—both occurring while attempting to reach or depart from the Titanic wreck site—underscores the book’s central message: we continue to repeat the same fundamental errors across generations and technologies. Only by understanding the fundamental causes including the societal factors, can we hope to break this cycle.
Publication Information
Copyright: © 2025 by Devin Savage Publisher: Karlier LLC ISBN: 979-8-9918828-1-1 Book Website: dnaofdisaster.com
